Just Don's Comments
While we wait for a Pick3 play ... Don shares his thoughts.
6-12-02 - From Don - To the sibkkc.ru: Interesting game, the pick 3 game. I wrote about repeaters and the number 550 arrived 2 days in a row subsequent to that writing. Then, I wrote about the incredibly low payouts and how the game only paid out near what it took in on one day during the month. Then the number 000 occurred and a 3 million plus payout to players occurred. So, from June 1 to June 10 the pick three game actually paid out 89% of the money they took in. So the short term payouts would appear excellent if you use that singular payout. However, that singular payout is in no way indicative of the odds the game presents.
Presently, I continue to study when the "2" will be a good speculation. Keep reading sibkkc.ru for great lottery news. Don
The lottery is counting on the fact that you'll be back wagering on the game again with that large payout they paid out for one day. And they are also counting on the fact that you will be playing the game quite often. To those of you who had success with the number 000, I urge you to buy something that you value with the profit you were fortunate enough to obtain. Yes, put a small amount aside for future speculations but put most of the money to use in a way that makes you feel good.
6-11-02 - From Don - To the sibkkc.ru: I review many aspects of the pick 3 game. Some of the areas include my past recommendations and the length of time and numbers I provided the readers. Dawn generously supplies all my past recommendations to provide readers an assessment of my record. For me, one of the most difficult things I do is figure out how to actually tell readers what might be a good speculation, why it is good, and the approximate risk level they are subjecting themselves to. (I write about that quite a bit, the payouts)
Right now, the game is certainly presenting a dilemma. The digit 2 in the middle position is what I characterize as slightly distended at 50 plus days. When I wrote about this 5 days ago, I advised readers not to play yet. As it turns out I was accurate in that assessment.
The 2 in the middle position is moving closer towards play. However, knowing that is not good enough because even if all outcomes are played it is 100 to 1 each day. That's too much risk.
But, the game can be played ANY. Lets say we place a 2 within the number on any wager. We believe it might be in the center position but we have a 10 to 1 chance for it to be in any of the other positions independently. So, lets hypothesize that we place another 2 with the 2 we believe will occur. Now we have 2-2-x with x being the unknown number. We still are facing 100 to 1 odds because the 2 we selected along with a guess at digit x places us at long odds. Again, if we theorize that the 2 will occur based on statistics and we take a guess that there will be another 2, we have one digit to further choose. I'm trying to formulate a good statistical guess at what that digit might be. Until then, I do not advise playing the game. Keep reading sibkkc.ru for the latest news. Don
6-7-02 - From Don - 2 Messages Today - arrived a different times - First Message - To the sibkkc.ru: This web-site is loaded with interesting information as it's loyal readers will attest. Today, I spent some time reviewing what the pick 3 game was taking in and what it was paying out. I took a day, the ONLY day, that the game paid out more than it took in (not really) in the day pick 3 drawing on 5/30/2002. I then averaged 8 days within that day looking for a higher average. The computation revealed an average of 53%. I took 8 days in the pick 3 night game and they paid out an average of 43%.
If you average 43% and 53% you achieve a result of 48%.
Thus, if you play the game everyday, say $1 per day for about 312 days you should expect a return of $156.
So, you can review numbers, the days of the week they arrived, the days they repeated, the days they did not arrive, the times the digits occurred, the times they didn't occur and so on. However, all these events will not change the fact that the statistics prove that you will lose 50% of your expected wagers.
When I have a play, which, may be forthcoming soon, I try to conclude how long we will play, how many numbers, how to play (exact or any) and how good a play this could be. When the conditions are met you must therefore stop playing as playing the game often will subject you to needless risk and place you in the statistical loss column that is shown on this web-site. ( the payouts) As many of the players comment, they only have so many discretionary dollars to play the games with. Hopefully, they will wait for great opportunity. Keep reading sibkkc.ru for the latest news. Don
Second Message (6-7-02) - To the sibkkc.ru: On 6/5/2002, I wrote about the digit 2 in the middle position. I DID NOT advise playing all the outcomes with the 2 for a $100 wager for 2 days to win $500. The correct numbers that arrived were 534 and 905. So you can see that evaluating WHEN to play is a very critical element of the game.
Also, if you read my column on 5/23/2002, paragraph 4, you may have noticed that the zero group continues to arrive very true to the statistical formation I spoke of.
When I evaluate all of the numbers in groups such as this, a reasonable pattern of randomness emerges. To me, a random outcome means that trends MUST adhere to normal probability models. To you, that means that outcomes MUST arrive. As players, you want to be on these outcomes when the model indicates a "play".
When I read this web-site and look at the money wagered on an average daily basis I get very disappointed because it indicates I may not have made my point about playing the game often to enough of you. This is because the amount wagered daily is very consistent. You can help people you know by telling them the real facts about this game and how playing it often is bad financial strategy. Keep reading the sibkkc.ru for great lottery news. Don
6-5-02 - From Don - To the readers of sibkkc.ru: Readers comments are always interesting to me in that they stimulate my curiosity about the game even more from different perspectives. Recently, the process of random number generation has come up. Although I have never reviewed the actual workings of the pick 3 random number generator, it would seem a very simple mathematical process.
Due to the fact that each drawing is an independent event and has no relationship to past or future drawings, the fact that a player noticed something about the number drawn in relation to the past number drawn is really irrelevant in the short term. Again, the pick 3 game reaps huge profits on the low payouts, not the number that is drawn.
For example, when a player is buying a ticket, a hypothetical number is being purchased. AT THE VERY SAME TIME, someone else is buying another random number or machine pick. All the machine has to do is give the first player number 123, give the next player 124 and so on. It continues to do that process for all 1000 outcomes exact or 220 outcomes any. That is very easy work for computers. Since there is generally way over $650,000 wagered daily the 1000 outcomes and the 220 any outcomes go very quickly. Random number generation is an excellent vehicle for the state because it assures them $500 for every $1000 wagered because it just continues to give players all combinations continuously. The only risk the game has is when all of the players are playing the same numbers. That's not much of a risk however, because most of the time, the odds are over 900 to 1 against a correct selection. However, it is the ONLY time that the players can actually have an advantage on a collective basis.
And speaking of numbers, have you noticed that the last time a digit 2 occurred in the middle position, meaning x2x, was 3/30/02. A normal outcome for the ten digits would be once every 10 days. It's over 50 days now. So, by playing x2x, the first and last digit being unknown, it is 100 to 1 to win 500 to 1 should a good guess be correct on when the 2 will occur in the middle position. If we play them all, thus wagering $100 to win $500 we must hit in at least the next 2 days to maintain a reasonable profit. So, that won't work.
But, let's say we select the 4 in the first position and of course, the 2 in the second position. Now we have 4-2-x. Now it is only a 10 to 1 chance to win $500 by picking the correct day.
So, I am working on this, what number might occur in the first position or what number might occur in the last position to go with the 2 in the center position. I DO NOT advise playing yet. I will let you know when this becomes a better opportunity. It will be fun to watch along with me though. I wish all the readers great success. Don
5-31-02 - From Don - To the sibkkc.ru: Yes, Molly and Rosalee, I find the sibkkc.ru interesting and entertaining and I too, look at the comments and consider them. Perhaps it was an omen that I wrote about repeaters one week before the duplication of a number.
Let me provide you what my statistics offer me. First, "all of the numbers have not played for nine years". In pick 3 days, 9 years is not long at all. Here's why. The number 999 represents 1 outcome out of 1000. Thus, every 1000 draws you would expect to see one outcome of 999. As you know, sometimes outcomes go longer than expected. How much longer can they go? Well, I have quite a bit of information on that!! I have outcomes that have gone, are you ready, beyond 10 times normal and longer. Thus, it could be very realistic to see 999 not arrive in 10,000 days. Since there are 6 draws a week for 52 weeks, that is 312 draws per year. Yes, that's right, 32 years. The same would be true for 229 or any other singular outcome.
As to what just happened in the day pick 3 game, it is an exact replica of what I wrote about one week ago. You begin the first day of pick 3 day game. You begin playing the number that just occurred. In this case, the only number that repeated has been 505, which repeated as 550 twice. On an any wager, playing repeaters in this case would have cost you $378 playing $1 wagers. You would have won $160 which is almost exactly representative of half the true odds that the pick 3 game pays.
I should tell you that I'm not even looking at the pick 3 DAY game. I don't study the few stats I could on it or see what trends are developing in it. My comments are just based on what I know about the many other pick 3 games I have reviewed.
The purpose of todays column is just to condense some of the items I have written about in past columns. First, the pick 3 game is absolutely guaranteed success due to the payouts. Second, all numbers will occur over time but you can easily lose all your money before it's your time. Third, the pick 3 game can make more profit with fewer players. Fourth, playing the game every day is a guaranteed losing proposition. Fifth, by assuring the game is fair, the pick 3 game is assured success. Sixth, if, you are playing numbers that you believe are "due" you will lose. Seventh, if you are playing numbers that are occurring frequently you will lose.
Finally, there are times when the odds can be lowered based on statistics, to give the players an opportunity to obtain profits.
I wanted to add one more item about numbers occurring. If you read paragraph 4 of my 5/23 column, I write about an exact scenario of what I call the zero group. The zero group is a group of 36 numbers. Thus, at 36 to 1 you win 80 to 1. After the 038, we had 092 3 days later and 051 2 days later, and 018 2 days later. That is exactly what I predicted in my column and what the statistics prove to be true. If I believe that something is occurring that should not be, I'll be the first one to report it.
I continue to research and find those opportunities for you. I wish all the players great success!
Thanks for visiting sibkkc.ru. Don
5-30-02 - From Dawn - Players are upset about the repeat of "550" today and yesterday. The fact that the numbers "repeated" don't upset me as much as the fact that there were more winners on "550" today than there were yesterday. I am having a hard time believing that players would "purposely" play the same numbers the day after the numbers were drawn. I've posted a couple of players comments and I have responded. Click here to read.
5-25-02 - From Don - To the sibkkc.ru: In my last message, I discuss testing and some of the elements of testing I do. I also evaluate what messages I have imparted to readers in the past to make sure my messages have accurately reflected the testing.
In this column, I want to discuss another strategy that testing proves fruitless and that is "repeaters". A repeater is simply a strategy of playing numbers that are occurring. For example, lets say I began playing the Night pick 3 drawing on 3/25/2002 when the number was 994. On March 26, the next day, I am going to play 994. The correct number was 512 that night. So then I am going to play 994 and 512 on the next day. I am going to continue playing numbers in this fashion until one of the numbers arrived I just played. Then I am going to begin again. Lets see what would have happened. (all wagers are any)
Well, interestingly enough, the very first repeater occurred on 4/15/2002. The number was 976, a repeater of 796 which occurred on 4/6/2002. Oh, and yes, I picked this number to occur on this web site on March 26th. Anyway, that meant that I would have played the lottery 19 days. Beginning with day 1, I would have had to wager 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19 for a total out of pocket of $190. Of course we know that this payout would have only been $80. So, the testing reveals this is a big loser.
To make a long story short, there were 5 repeaters that occurred between 3/25/2002 and 5/23/2002. They were 976,276,143,038 and of course 772 (I picked this number on this web-site on 4/29/2002 and it arrived first on 5/8/2002) The conclusion is that although I picked 2 of the 5 pick 3 repeaters that occurred between 3/25/2002 and 5/23/2002 playing repeaters is way too risky.
The purpose of today's column is just to assure many of you that I continue to evaluate every potential probability to give readers a grand opportunity for success. Best Regards, Don
5-23-02 - 2:15 AM - From Don - To the sibkkc.ru: In my most recent message, I discussed the strategy involving playing double digits on a daily basis and why this methodology is flawed. However, in that column, I stated a player would sustain a loss of $910 over 16 days of pick 3 play and the actual figure was a negative $860 loss over the same period, obviously a very substantial loss any way you figure it out. The objective of the article was to show why playing the game often is extremely bad for the pocketbook.
Sometimes readers will have questions about the game or have ideas about the game and how success may be obtained. I am always open to respond to what questions I might be able to answer that involve my own analysis of the game. And although I have written articles on why I think you should always pursue your ideas by TESTING them with IMAGINARY dollars sometimes people think that just because it didn't work with IMAGINARY dollars it will work with real dollars. I have never found that to be the case.
In my case, I always do an incredible amount of what I call testing. Testing involves comparing one state pick 3 game against another pick 3 game. Testing involves deciding whether to play exact or any. Testing involves projecting a potential day of play and why that day has merit. Testing involves playing numbers within the greatest percentile of advantage to the player.
For example, studying and testing just 36 numbers or 216 exact numbers can take hours or perhaps months of study, not including the programming to look at the results. If you take numbers that contain a zero and have 3 different digits there are 36 of them. Normally, these 36 numbers arrive within 4 days of each other 61% of the time. Thus, if you saw a number arrive like 502 on 4/27/2002 it would be expected to see another such as 702 that occurred on 4/29/2002 or the next pick 3 day. Four days later on 5/3/2002, another in the group occurred 4 days later in the form of 803. Since the group is expected under 4 days 61% of the time and it did so 3 times consecutively it would be expected that this group would go beyond the four days next. It did so and a number fitting the criteria did not occur for 16 Pick3 days until the arrival of 038. That's what I call significant testing results that work. I have literally hundreds of statistics about this group alone. I also have statistics about literally hundreds of groups of other numbers and try to provide readers with the BEST statistic available.
If you have an idea, you can do the same thing I'm doing but I warn you it will take you an incredible amount of energy and time and you might not have any success whatsoever because the payouts are too low as I have repeatedly talked about. I certainly wish you much success. Don
5-17-02 - 11:00 AM - From Don - To the sibkkc.ru: It's always entertaining to WATCH the evolution of a new pick 3 game from a statistical standpoint and theorize what may happen.
I also read some comments from readers who noticed that they thought double digits were occurring more frequently and an observation by Dawn that many people played double digits more than combination type numbers. I think that is very interesting and that is one of the things that provoked my initial interest in this game. Let me talk about the double digit in this space generously provided by the sibkkc.ru.
The double digit represents 90 numbers on an "any" type wager. There are 120 combination numbers and 10 triple digits which comprise all the outcomes. (220)
The DAY pick 3 game commenced on 4/29/2002. If you began playing ALL 90 of the double digits on an "any" wager progressively, meaning 90 the first day ($1 each) and 90 the second day ($2 each) on the second day you "hit". You invested $270 to win $320.
Moving on with that strategy on May 1 or day 3 you implemented the same strategy. You invested, $90, $180, $270, $360, $450 or $1350.
On May 6th, you "hit" again and won $800. So in 7 days of pick 3 play you won $50 on the first play and $800 on the second play.
Only problem is, you invested $1350 for a loss of $550. You continue to believe in your methods however and "hit" 090 on May 8th and realize another $50 profit which now brings your losses to $500. You now play another 5 days and "hit" again on May 14th for another $550 loss. Now you are down $1050. However, you invest another 90 on the 15th and 16th and "hit" both days for a profit of $70 both days (90 pays 160) for a profit of $140. Now, you are only down $910 in 16 days of lottery play. I think everyone gets my point. You won't win playing double digits.
Now I'm sure there are those that may say, what if I just play a few double digits progressively. (increasing your wager each day). Well, I would say to you, you will "hit" occasionally but the percentage that you lose will be so great that it will not be near the amount you might win.
A brief examination of the stats on this web site reveals that between 4/29 and 5/15 the pick 3 game never paid out more than it took in. In fact, there were occasions when they only paid out 23% of the total sales. Yes, there was a day when they paid out 71%. So, averaging would only mean a payout of 47% which they very rarely will payout. As I have explained, double digits only represent 28% of total outcomes thus, playing only double digits over time is a huge loser, even if you think they are occurring more often. Even if they were to occur more often in the short term, you won't win because it will only take one streak to wipe you out.
I continue to look for opportunities which will be more representative of a reasonable outcome. Best Regards, Don
5-15-02 - 9:50 PM - From Don -To the sibkkc.ru: There are always an array of fascinating statistics contained in the sibkkc.ru. In reviewing some of these statistics, a few observations come to mind.
First, if the pick 3 game has 1000 players playing a hypothetical 1000 numbers the lottery is guaranteed to win 500. That is a 100% chance of winning half the money wagered. Let's theorize that fewer people now play. Let's say 800 people play different numbers. The lottery is guaranteed 300 but has a 20% chance of winning 800. Using an extreme example, say 200 people play 200 different numbers. They have an 80% chance of winning all 200. That's huge, an 80% chance to win everyday, every draw, to win 100% of somebody else's money. So, I would conclude that this game is like no other because they are guaranteed success and allot of it. Fewer dollars spent doesn't necessarily mean less profit.
Now I know that a few of the loyal readers are thinking, what about when one of those 200 numbers played wins, they must pay out the 200 they took in and give the player a 300 profit. Yes, that is correct. So, for 30 days they will take in $6000 (200 times 30) For 6 of the days (20% of the time) they will payout 500. That's $3000.
So, they took in $6000 and paid out $3000 with far fewer players.
However, knowing these statistics, is not necessarily a detraction from the game because at CERTAIN TIMES the game presents opportunities. The majority of the time, though, the game is too tough to be played and that's why I often advise to refrain from playing the game at all.
Last nights drawing was an interesting example of that fact. There were 28 numbers, having three different digits, all containing a 1, and none containing a 0, (for example 123). These numbers have never before gone 29 days in the pick 3 game in 8.44 years without arriving. So, if I would have posted this information you would have had a 28 to 1 chance using my methods to win 80 to 1. The bad part is, I have seen the numbers go much longer in other states with a much bigger statistical profile. I endeavor to give readers of this column the absolute best play I can find statistically because I am very aware of the odds and payouts.
I conclude, then, stop playing the game MOST of the time. Don
5-14-02 - 10:00 AM - From Don - To the readers of sibkkc.ru: In lasts NIGHTS (5-13-02) Pick3 game we again had a 772 which I discuss on in my comments on May 5th, 2002. The emergence of my selections on a short rebound occurs often although I cannot recommend playing them. There are several reasons I cannot recommend numbers on what I call the bounce, after a predicted outcome has arrived.
One of those reasons is found on the sibkkc.ru web site concerning statistics about sales and payouts. When I review these statistics I am appalled by the lack of regard the lottery has for the players.
Just a routine examination for a 7 day period shows that the payouts were only 36% of the total sales. That means for every $100 they take in they only pay out $36. That should tell you that playing the pick 3 game on an everyday basis is financial suicide. The pick 3 game could easily pay $100 instead of $80 on an any ticket and $600 on an exact ticket and make tons of money.
However, as I have written about, they are absolutely guaranteed success with the payouts presently offered. That doesn't mean there are not opportunities at certain times, it just means that we must refrain from playing the game most of the time. I continue to study the game and look for opportunities worthy of your very hard earned dollars. Thanks for visiting sibkkc.ru. Don